CD School House 9/CD School House 9.0 - Wayzata Technology (1994).iso/pc/dos/math/merln14i/merlin.doc

Text File | 1992-09-02 | 12KB | 199 lines

MERLIN Hurricane Tracking Tool - version 1.4i
(EGA or better color monitor required!)

INTRODUCTION - MERLIN is an easy-to-use hurricane/tropical storm tracking
tool that provides the user with current information about the selected
storm, in an easy to understand text report and tracking map.  MERLIN
Advisories contain information that is built from input by the user, great
circle calculations, RatIo Tracking Algorithm (RITA) mathematical modeling,
and neural network decisions based on a trained network (artificial
intelligence).  MERLIN Advisories are viewed on-screen with an option to print
a MERLIN Report.  MERLIN's Review mode, allows you to page backward and
forward thru previous MERLIN Advisories.  What-If scenarios are quickly
generated by choosing an alternate tracking location from a pop-up menu.
Historical information can be generated on-screen in the form of a MERLIN
History, but the real value of MERLIN is in short-term forecasting.  MERLIN's
philosophy is that you should concentrate more on where the storm could go,
than on where it has been.

HOW TO SET-UP MERLIN - Create a directory on the hard drive of your
computer (typically drive C), named MERLIN, and copy all the files on the
distribution diskette on to that directory.  Type MERLIN and press <Enter>
and the program will begin.  If you want the program to continue after the
opening screen, use MERLIN /T3, where the number three represents a three
second delay and then MERLIN continues on.  You can use any value you desire.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

MENU SELECTIONS - A brief statement on MERLIN menu selections are below:

What if...  This allows you to quickly change tracking locations and view the
MERLIN advisory from a different perspective.  There are nearly 100 locations
with the registered version of MERLIN, and your own city's location is added
to the menu before shipping the registered disk.  The tracking locations
consist of most of the "official" locations used by the National Hurricane
Center for watch/warning locations and also landfall possibility sites.
These locations range from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME and also include
Hamilton, Bermuda.  Tracking locations can be added, deleted, or modified by
using any ASCII text editor on the MERLIN.DAT file.  You need to know the
latitude, longitude and city/state (21 characters or less on city/state).
ALWAYS make a copy of the MERLIN.DAT file BEFORE you edit it.  Then, if
something goes wrong you'll still have the original, un-edited file.

History...  With the history option you can view the complete set of storm
readings you have entered, along with the direction and forward speed of the
storm calculated automatically by MERLIN.  When the number of entries exceed
the amount that can be viewed on one screen, you can easily use the up and
down arrow, PgUp/PgDn, or Home/End keys to see all of the history. Pressing
the "Esc" key returns you to the main MERLIN screen.

Print...    This lets you print the MERLIN Report, MERLIN History, or both
reports to your attached printer.

Update...   Choose this to update MERLIN with additional readings (75 max),
that you get on the current storm.  You should get AT LEAST ONE SET OF
READINGS FOR EACH 24 HOUR PERIOD, although more frequent updates are better.
The following information is REQUIRED for MERLIN to generate correct
advisories: storm latitude, storm longitude, date of reading, time of reading
(24 hour format), and maximum winds (mph).  You have the option to include
the storm's barometric pressure (in inches), and I recommend you include it
if available.  All this information is easily obtained from a number of
sources during a hurricane or tropical storm period. Examples  of sources
include local radio, television, The Weather Channel (cable), and broadcasts
from the National Weather Service.  The NWS provides hourly updates to their
broadcasts, with readings of storms taken typically twice a day, and four
times a day when a storm threatens the U. S. coastline.

The Update option is where any error you are likely to encounter is created.
If you attempt to insert an earlier set of readings, or enter your latitude
and longitude in reverse order you may see unusual results or perhaps even
crash the program.  The update information is kept in an ASCII text file
called "STORMNAME.'YR".  If you make a mistake in your data entry you will
have to delete the last line of information in the ASCII file (using a
text-editor/word processor), or delete the entire ASCII file and start over.
MERLIN's error handling has been improved, but to avoid the above, enter your
information CAREFULLY before you tell MERLIN it's OK!

Storm...    This option allows you to easily load another storm into MERLIN
that was created by you earlier.  Do not ever erase the CARLA.'61 file because
it is needed by MERLIN to rebuild your configuration file.

New...      Choose this whenever you are ready to create a new storm for
MERLIN to keep track of.

Map...      A tracking map provides the user with a graphical representation
of the current storm.  First, a base map encompassing the eastern USA and
Gulf of Mexico is drawn.  Next, a grid of longitude/latitude markings is
overlaid on the base map.  Finally, the current storm is plotted across the
map based on that storm's readings.  The storm track is in three colors,
and is represented by the following:

   * Light Blue =   Depression/Wave
   * Light Yellow = Tropical Storm
   * Light Red =    Hurricane

A fourth color, bright white, is used to draw a final line at the end of the
storm track and this line represents MERLIN'S 12 HOUR PROJECTION of the
current storm (see the MERLIN ADVISORY below).  Press ALT+1 to print the map
if your IBM/Epson dot-matrix printer uses LPT1, or ALT+2 if it uses LPT2.

Info...     This selection displays MERLIN.DOC to the screen while within
MERLIN.

Time...     There are six time zones that you can use with MERLIN and you
should choose the one that is current for your area. (CDT, CST, EDT, EST, AST,
and GMT).  All MERLIN storm files are stored in GMT, or universal time on
your PC, regardless of your choice.

Color...    You can choose the color scheme of MERLIN with this option.

"pRinter..." There are two printer selections available.  If your printer
can handle the extended character set, choose it, if not, choose the "do not
use extended character set" option.  Any printer should print with this
option.

PgUp/PgDn... Pressing PgUp/PgDn places the MERLIN Advisory into Review mode.
This mode allows you to view any MERLIN Advisory, from the current advisory,
backwards to MERLIN Advisory #1.  You can also page forward until you reach
the current advisory.  Pressing the "Esc" key at any time returns you to the
current advisory and takes you out of Review mode.  Items that are hi-lited
on the MERLIN menu are the only active selections available to you in Review
mode.  Please note that the History menu selection gives you the complete
history of the storm whether you are in Current or Review mode.  If the
Review mode indicator is not "ON", you are in Current mode.

Use the "Esc" key to exit MERLIN and return to DOS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE MERLIN ADVISORY - There are three items on the advisory itself to take
note of: UPDATE, MERLIN'S OUTLOOK, and 12 HOUR PROJECTION.

UPDATE - There are many calculations that take place here that provide
basic information on the current storm.  Sometimes the information will be
brief, especially with your first reading.  More information becomes
available with your second reading, because more calculations can then be
made.  Note how the "direct path statement" can change dramatically from the
previous reading.  This is because the arrival of the storm's center is
based on the CURRENT rate of travel of the storm in mph.

MERLIN'S OUTLOOK - This output comes into the advisory beginning with the
second reading and thereafter.  MERLIN attempts to "look ahead" and determine
what level the intensity of the storm will be in several hours. The decision
is made by MERLIN after passing current information on the storm through a
neural network "trained" on previous storms.  This technique of artificial
intelligence looks for patterns in the current storm that match patterns
determined by the neural network.  Look for the highest number and this is
the best choice based on the network determination.  The range of the output
is from .00 to .99.  There may be times when two of the outputs are close and
you should take this into account when you interpret the result.  The three
outputs do not add up to 100 because they are independent of each other.  The
network calculates the output for EACH node based on the current pattern of
the storm.

12 HOUR PROJECTION OF TREND - A projection of future location of the storm is
made beginning with the second reading and thereafter.  A mathematical model
(RITA - RatIo Tracking Algorithm), is used to determine this projection.  The
latitude and longitude generated by MERLIN, is where the storm would be in
twelve hours based on the most recent trend of the storm.  RITA is a model
developed by T. M. Parker, and is used exclusively by the MERLIN Hurricane
Tracking Tool.

Do NOT expect the storm to be located EXACTLY at the 12 hour projection.
IF the storm continues on its current trend, it should be in the GENERAL area
of the projection calculated by MERLIN.  Everyone should be aware that
hurricanes and tropical storms can rapidly change direction and forward speed
at a moment's notice.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the printed MERLIN Report, besides the MERLIN advisory, there is a
mini-history of the current storm.  The ten most current entries and
calculations on the storm are always on the report.  A complete history
report is available for printing by using the Print option from the menu.

CAUTION!! - No person or computer program, not even MERLIN, can predict the
future.  ALWAYS pay close attention to the progress of an approaching storm,
and heed the warnings of the local authorities in your area.  If they say to
evacuate, DO IT!

You can order MERLIN from Public (software) Library (PsL) with your MC, VISA,
AMEX, or DISCOVER card by calling 800-242-4PsL (from overseas or 713 area:
713-524-6394), or FAX a print-out of the ORDER.FRM file to 713-524-6398 or
CompuServe at 71355,470.  These numbers are for ordering only.  T. M. Parker
can NOT be reached at the above numbers.  To contact T. M. Parker for
non-credit card orders, information about dealer pricing, volume discounts,
site licensing, status of product shipment, the latest version number or for
technical information, write:

             T. M. Parker  P. O. Box 1431  La Porte TX, 77572.

Licensing and Distribution
--------------------------
This program is Copyright (C) 1991, 1992 T. M. Parker, All rights reserved.
The software you purchase is NOT a shareware program; THIS SOFTWARE IS
DISTRIBUTED AS IS; THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES OR GUARANTEES THAT IT WILL SUIT
YOUR NEEDS AND T. M. PARKER SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE IN ANY WAY FOR YOUR
USAGE OF THIS PROGRAM NOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES THAT MAY
ARISE FROM THAT USAGE.